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Dominant SV Elversberg run riot with a 0-4 hammering of 1. FC Magdeburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SV Elversberg beat 1. FC Magdeburg 0-4 at Avnet-Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.28 xG and SV Elversberg 2.29 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. SV Elversberg outscored their 2.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.04 / defence 1.39 against SV Elversberg attack 1.21 / defence 0.86, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 20% | Draw 20% | SV Elversberg 60%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 66%, SV Elversberg 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

SV Elversberg's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.37. That form edge translated into the three points. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights