1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 Prediction & Preview
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Poisson rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 86% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98 make the trip to Avnet-Arena to face 1. FC Magdeburg in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Sunday 21 March 2027 at 12:30 UK time.
Form
1. FC Magdeburg (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
1. FC Magdeburg at home: 8W 0D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
SV Darmstadt 98's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 0W 2D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form ledger tips toward 1. FC Magdeburg. A 1.20 PPG lead over SV Darmstadt 98 (2.00 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for 1. FC Magdeburg, 2 for SV Darmstadt 98 and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Oct 2026, ended 1. FC Magdeburg 1–1 SV Darmstadt 98 — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Magdeburg — key trading statistics (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
SV Darmstadt 98 — key trading statistics (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Magdeburg 49% versus SV Darmstadt 98 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 56% | SV Darmstadt 98 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 3.45 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.547 / defence 1.021 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.669 / defence 1.356. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.160. 1. FC Magdeburg carry an above-average attack rating of 1.547 — their 3.45 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating of 1.356 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing 1. FC Magdeburg's projected output up. SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating of 0.669 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Data: built from 1. FC Magdeburg's last 45 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 45.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 86% | Draw 9% | SV Darmstadt 98 5%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.16 | Draw 10.57 | SV Darmstadt 98 21.37. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Magdeburg (86%) — a 77pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 4.24. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.24 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Magdeburg are the pick at 86% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.24 combined xG gives a 80% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Magdeburg's last 10 home games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: 1. FC Magdeburg 40% (last 10 home games) | SV Darmstadt 98 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 27 | Venue: Avnet-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 March 2027 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 86% | Draw 9% | SV Darmstadt 98 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% (Under 20%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 3.45 / SV Darmstadt 98 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.547 / def 1.021 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.669 / def 1.356 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (86%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.45
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
0.79
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
53%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 FAQs
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 21 March 2027 at Avnet-Arena.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Avnet-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 27) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 86% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 5% chance, and a 9% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from 1. FC Magdeburg's attack rating (1.55) and SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 3.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SV Darmstadt 98's attack (0.67x) against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Magdeburg's last 45 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.6%), 4-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
86%
1.16
9%
10.57
5%
21.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
4 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.45
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
4.24
0.79
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
1.16
86%
Home win
10.57
9%
Draw
21.37
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
3%
31.47
Win to Nil
39%
2.57
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.8 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 3.45 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 0.79 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 4.24.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 86%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Magdeburg's recent record stands at 18W 5D 22L from 45 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five.
SV Darmstadt 98, meanwhile, have gone 15W 16D 14L across 45 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-L-D-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for 1. FC Magdeburg against 1.36 for SV Darmstadt 98. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, 1. FC Magdeburg have managed 10W 2D 10L from their last 22 home games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record stands at 3W 8D 11L across their last 22 away games, a 0.77 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SV Darmstadt 98's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Magdeburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.47 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg (Home) vs SV Darmstadt 98 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 18W 5D 22L in their last 45 games (1.31 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 15W 16D 14L in their last 45 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
1. FC Magdeburg's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.45 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98, the earliest from November 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Magdeburg won 1. FC Magdeburg 4-1 SV Darmstadt 98 on 2 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
1. FC Magdeburg
3
Draws
2
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 2, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: SV Darmstadt 98 1-1 1. FC Magdeburg.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 46%, SV Darmstadt 98 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for 1. FC Magdeburg and 64% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Magdeburg keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; SV Darmstadt 98 in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent matches and 64% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 64% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent matches and 64% of SV Darmstadt 98's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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