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Dominant 1. FC Magdeburg run riot with a 4-1 hammering of SV Darmstadt 98.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Magdeburg beat SV Darmstadt 98 4-1 at Avnet Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.80 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.58 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.07 / defence 1.21 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.98 / defence 1.16, drawn from 57/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 42% | Draw 25% | SV Darmstadt 98 33%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 60%, SV Darmstadt 98 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, 1. FC Magdeburg arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.79. Form held, and they took the win. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights