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Shock result as SpVgg Greuther Fürth defy the odds to beat 1. FC Magdeburg 4-5.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat 1. FC Magdeburg 4-5 at Avnet-Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.57 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.31 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 4-5 for 9 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SpVgg Greuther Fürth outscored their 1.31 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.96 / defence 1.11 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.99 / defence 1.17, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 42% | Draw 28% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual SpVgg Greuther Fürth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 70%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 1.51 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights