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Poisson model favours SC Paderborn 07 (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as 1. FC Magdeburg face SC Paderborn 07.

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Pre-Match Analysis

1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 meet at Avnet-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 November 2025 at 12:30 UTC.

Form

1. FC Magdeburg (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 4W 0D 6L at Avnet-Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — 1. FC Magdeburg are significantly better at Avnet-Arena than their overall form suggests.

SC Paderborn 07's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. SC Paderborn 07 are 1.60 PPG clear of 1. FC Magdeburg in recent 2. Bundesliga fixtures (2.30 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — 1. FC Magdeburg lead 0W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 1–2 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

1. FC Magdeburg — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Magdeburg 56% and SC Paderborn 07 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 62% | SC Paderborn 07 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.09 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.943 / defence 1.344 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.011 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.346. SC Paderborn 07's defence strength of 0.786 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 1. FC Magdeburg games / 45 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 23% | Draw 23% | SC Paderborn 07 55%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 4.35 | Draw 4.35 | SC Paderborn 07 1.82. The model has a clear lean to SC Paderborn 07 (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. This conflicts with form data: 1. FC Magdeburg 20% | SC Paderborn 07 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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