1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 – Match Report

🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Avnet Arena, Regular Season - 16, as 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.12 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.83 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.78 / defence 1.11 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.07 / defence 0.96, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 21% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 52%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 57%, SC Paderborn 07 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 1.27 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights