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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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1. FC Magdeburg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Preußen Münster.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Magdeburg beat Preußen Münster 2-0 at Avnet-Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.65 xG and Preußen Münster 2.15 xG, a combined 3.81. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Preußen Münster landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.91 / defence 1.47 against Preußen Münster attack 1.03 / defence 1.24, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 30% | Draw 21% | Preußen Münster 49%, with Preußen Münster to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual 1. FC Magdeburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 65%, Preußen Münster 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Preußen Münster's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 1.33 PPG, Preußen Münster 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Magdeburg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights