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Dominant Preußen Münster run riot with a 0-5 hammering of 1. FC Magdeburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Preußen Münster beat 1. FC Magdeburg 0-5 at Avnet Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.68 xG and Preußen Münster 0.92 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Preußen Münster outscored their 0.92 projection by 4.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.09 / defence 1.04 against Preußen Münster attack 0.71 / defence 1.04, drawn from 65/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 54% | Draw 27% | Preußen Münster 19%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Preußen Münster win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 68%, Preußen Münster 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Preußen Münster's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, 1. FC Magdeburg arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Preußen Münster winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights