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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Karlsruher SC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over 1. FC Magdeburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karlsruher SC beat 1. FC Magdeburg 1-3 at Avnet-Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.77 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.62 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Karlsruher SC outscored their 1.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.87 / defence 1.30 against Karlsruher SC attack 0.93 / defence 1.32, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 40% | Draw 26% | Karlsruher SC 34%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Karlsruher SC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 65%, Karlsruher SC 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Karlsruher SC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 1.33 PPG, Karlsruher SC 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karlsruher SC win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights