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Dominant 1. FC Magdeburg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of SSV Jahn Regensburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Magdeburg beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 3-0 at Avnet Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 2.81 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.74 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.09 / defence 1.10 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.54 / defence 1.76, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 79% | Draw 14% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 6%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 79%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 68%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, 1. FC Magdeburg arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was vindicated by the result. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights