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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Hamburger SV run riot with a 0-3 hammering of 1. FC Magdeburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hamburger SV beat 1. FC Magdeburg 0-3 at Avnet Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 2.03 xG and Hamburger SV 1.66 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Hamburger SV outscored their 1.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.22 / defence 1.19 against Hamburger SV attack 1.11 / defence 1.13, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 46% | Draw 24% | Hamburger SV 31%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Hamburger SV win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 59%, Hamburger SV 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Hamburger SV's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 1.36 PPG, Hamburger SV 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hamburger SV win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights