🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 34 as 1. FC Magdeburg welcome Fortuna Düsseldorf to Avnet Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 May 2025 at 14:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 4W 2D 4L at Avnet Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Fortuna Düsseldorf — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Fortuna Düsseldorf's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — 1. FC Magdeburg at 1.20 PPG versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 1 for 1. FC Magdeburg.

The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2024, ended 5–2 with 1. FC Magdeburg winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 5.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Profile

1. FC Magdeburg in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Magdeburg 60% and Fortuna Düsseldorf 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 58% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.55 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.008 / defence 1.278 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.084 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.316. Data: 67 1. FC Magdeburg games / 67 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 32% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 43%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Magdeburg 50% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 100% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights