1. FC Magdeburg 4-2 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 34 as 1. FC Magdeburg welcome Fortuna Düsseldorf to Avnet Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 May 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 4W 2D 4L at Avnet Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Fortuna Düsseldorf — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — 1. FC Magdeburg at 1.20 PPG versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 1 for 1. FC Magdeburg.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2024, ended 5–2 with 1. FC Magdeburg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 5.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Magdeburg in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Magdeburg 60% and Fortuna Düsseldorf 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 58% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.55 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.008 / defence 1.278 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.084 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.316. Data: 67 1. FC Magdeburg games / 67 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 32% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 43%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Magdeburg 50% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Avnet Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 32% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.55 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.008 / def 1.278 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.084 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Avnet Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
1. FC Magdeburg 4 - 2 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Avnet Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 32% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (5 meetings): 1. FC Magdeburg 1W | Draws 0 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 4W.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates 1. FC Magdeburg's attack at 1.01x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus 1. FC Magdeburg's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
32%
3.13
25%
4.05
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
3.37
1.82
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
3.13
32%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
16%
6.19
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
5%
19.36
9%
10.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.82 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, 1. FC Magdeburg have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 22W 22D 23L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form line: 32W 19D 16L from 67 games, 1.72 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against 1. FC Magdeburg.
Venue Form
On home soil, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 1.30 PPG from 33 outings (10W 13D 10L).
On the road, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 16W 11D 6L from 33 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Düsseldorf come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.93 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 63%.
Last 67 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Current Season
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 22W 22D 23L in their last 67 games (1.31 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 32W 19D 16L in their last 67 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.30 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2024, when 1. FC Magdeburg won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Magdeburg's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
1. FC Magdeburg
0
Draws
5
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 3, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when 1. FC Magdeburg 2-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Magdeburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 58%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for 1. FC Magdeburg and 64% for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of 1. FC Magdeburg's games and 67% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 64% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Magdeburg cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Fortuna Düsseldorf.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 4-2 at Avnet Arena, Regular Season - 34, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.55 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.82 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.01 / defence 1.28 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.08 / defence 1.04, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 32% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 43%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual 1. FC Magdeburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 58%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Magdeburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.