🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

1. FC Magdeburg cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Fortuna Düsseldorf.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Magdeburg beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 4-2 at Avnet Arena, Regular Season - 34, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.55 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.82 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.01 / defence 1.28 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.08 / defence 1.04, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 32% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 43%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual 1. FC Magdeburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 58%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Magdeburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights