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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Schalke 04 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over 1. FC Magdeburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Schalke 04 beat 1. FC Magdeburg 0-2 at Avnet-Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.42 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.48 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.19 / defence 1.36 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.83 / defence 0.87, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 36% | Draw 25% | FC Schalke 04 39%, with FC Schalke 04 to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 69%, FC Schalke 04 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Schalke 04's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 1.44 PPG, FC Schalke 04 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Schalke 04 win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights