1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Energie Cottbus travel to Avnet-Arena to take on 1. FC Magdeburg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 November 2026, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Magdeburg stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 7W 1D 2L at Avnet-Arena — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Avnet-Arena. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — 1. FC Magdeburg are significantly better at Avnet-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Energie Cottbus — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Energie Cottbus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Energie Cottbus have posted 1W 2D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
1. FC Magdeburg are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
1. FC Magdeburg trading profile (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Energie Cottbus trading profile (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Magdeburg 50% and Energie Cottbus 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Magdeburg 60% | Energie Cottbus 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 2.86 xG and Energie Cottbus 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.464 / defence 1.050 | Energie Cottbus attack 1.083 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.167. 1. FC Magdeburg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.464 — their λ of 2.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 1. FC Magdeburg games / 10 Energie Cottbus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 69% | Draw 16% | Energie Cottbus 15%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.45 | Draw 6.25 | Energie Cottbus 6.67. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Magdeburg (69%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 4.19. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.19 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.86 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Magdeburg as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.19 combined xG gives a 79% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Magdeburg 40% | Energie Cottbus 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Avnet-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 69% | Draw 16% | Energie Cottbus 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 69% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 2.86 / Energie Cottbus 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.464 / def 1.050 | Energie Cottbus attack 1.083 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.86
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Energie Cottbus xG
69%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Avnet-Arena.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus being played?
The match is being played at Avnet-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 69% chance of winning, Energie Cottbus a 15% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and Energie Cottbus will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and Energie Cottbus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Energie Cottbus in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Energie Cottbus (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1. FC Magdeburg's attack at 1.46x the league average against Energie Cottbus's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 2.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Energie Cottbus's attack versus 1. FC Magdeburg's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.9%), 1-1 (6.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
69%
1.45
16%
6.21
15%
6.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
2 – 0
6.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.86
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
4.19
1.33
Energie Cottbus xG
1.45
69%
Home win
6.21
16%
Draw
6.67
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.28
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
6%
17.50
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
1%
116.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and Energie Cottbus expected to score?
The model projects 2.86 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.33 for Energie Cottbus, a combined total of 4.19.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Magdeburg come into this having played 10 games, going 5W 2D 3L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Energie Cottbus sit at 1.00 PPG from 10 outings (2W 4D 4L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Energie Cottbus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Magdeburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Energie Cottbus — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
1. FC Magdeburg's home form reads 4W 0D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — 1. FC Magdeburg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Energie Cottbus have taken 1.00 points per game from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Magdeburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Energie Cottbus are on 1.80 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Energie Cottbus in 80%.
Defensively: 1. FC Magdeburg have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
Energie Cottbus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Energie Cottbus in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 games (1.70 PPG), while Energie Cottbus have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or Energie Cottbus away?
1. FC Magdeburg's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 2.40 PPG; Energie Cottbus away: 1.00 PPG.
Have 1. FC Magdeburg or Energie Cottbus been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Magdeburg have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Energie Cottbus in 10%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Energie Cottbus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 40%, Energie Cottbus 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for 1. FC Magdeburg and 80% for Energie Cottbus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Magdeburg keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / Energie Cottbus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play Energie Cottbus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent matches and 60% of Energie Cottbus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 80% of Energie Cottbus's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and Energie Cottbus tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Energie Cottbus in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.