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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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1. FC Magdeburg and Eintracht Braunschweig share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Magdeburg and Eintracht Braunschweig finished level at 1-1 at Avnet Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.66 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.08 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.82 / defence 1.08 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.67 / defence 1.36, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 49% | Draw 28% | Eintracht Braunschweig 23%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 58%, Eintracht Braunschweig 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 1.33 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights