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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Nürnberg edge out 1. FC Magdeburg 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Nürnberg beat 1. FC Magdeburg 3-4 at Avnet Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.41 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.44 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. 1. FC Nürnberg outscored their 1.44 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.78 / defence 1.06 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.88 / defence 1.19, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 36% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Nürnberg 37%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 57%, 1. FC Nürnberg 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 1.35 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights