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Dominant 1. FC Magdeburg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of 1. FC Köln.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Magdeburg beat 1. FC Köln 3-0 at Avnet Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.19 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.58 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. 1. FC Köln landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.93 / defence 1.23 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.82 / defence 0.87, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 28% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Köln 46%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual 1. FC Magdeburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 58%, 1. FC Köln 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

1. FC Köln's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 1.33 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Magdeburg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights