🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

SV Elversberg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over 1. FC Kaiserslautern.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SV Elversberg beat 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1-3 at Fritz Walter Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2.02 xG and SV Elversberg 1.50 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Kaiserslautern fell 1.0 short of their projected output. SV Elversberg outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.39 / defence 1.00 against SV Elversberg attack 1.17 / defence 1.02, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Kaiserslautern 49% | Draw 22% | SV Elversberg 28%, with 1. FC Kaiserslautern to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual SV Elversberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Kaiserslautern 66%, SV Elversberg 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Kaiserslautern's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

SV Elversberg's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.58 PPG, SV Elversberg 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Elversberg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Kaiserslautern (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights