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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Kaiserslautern edge out FC Schalke 04 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Kaiserslautern beat FC Schalke 04 2-1 at Fritz-Walter-Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.80 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.22 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.11 / defence 0.96 against FC Schalke 04 attack 1.01 / defence 1.09, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Kaiserslautern 50% | Draw 26% | FC Schalke 04 25%, with 1. FC Kaiserslautern to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Kaiserslautern 75%, FC Schalke 04 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Kaiserslautern's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

FC Schalke 04's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.33 PPG, FC Schalke 04 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Kaiserslautern win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights