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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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1. FC Kaiserslautern and 1. FC Nürnberg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Fritz Walter Stadion, Regular Season - 10, as 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 1. FC Nürnberg drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2.20 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.38 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Kaiserslautern fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.38 / defence 0.92 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.05 / defence 1.08, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Kaiserslautern 56% | Draw 20% | 1. FC Nürnberg 24%, with 1. FC Kaiserslautern to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Kaiserslautern 70%, 1. FC Nürnberg 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Kaiserslautern's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.65 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1. FC Kaiserslautern (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights