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Shock result as 1. FC Köln defy the odds to beat SV Elversberg 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Köln beat SV Elversberg 1-0 at RheinEnergieSTADION, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.34 xG and SV Elversberg 1.68 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SV Elversberg landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 1.13 / defence 1.07 against SV Elversberg attack 1.04 / defence 0.81, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 29% | Draw 28% | SV Elversberg 43%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual 1. FC Köln win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 44%, SV Elversberg 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Köln's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

SV Elversberg's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.12 PPG, SV Elversberg 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Köln win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights