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1. FC Köln cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Preußen Münster.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Köln beat Preußen Münster 3-1 at RheinEnergieSTADION, Regular Season - 30, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.20 xG and Preußen Münster 0.79 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Köln beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.88 / defence 0.92 against Preußen Münster attack 0.69 / defence 0.93, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 44% | Draw 33% | Preußen Münster 23%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 52%, Preußen Münster 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Köln's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Preußen Münster's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, 1. FC Köln arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights