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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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1. FC Köln and SSV Jahn Regensburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Köln and SSV Jahn Regensburg finished level at 1-1 at RheinEnergieSTADION, Regular Season - 32, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 2.57 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.56 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Köln fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 1.01 / defence 0.89 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.48 / defence 1.77, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 80% | Draw 15% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 5%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 80%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 54%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Köln's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, 1. FC Köln arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.06 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights