1. FC Köln 0-1 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours 1. FC Köln (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as 1. FC Köln face Hertha BSC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 28 as 1. FC Köln welcome Hertha BSC to RheinEnergieSTADION. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 April 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
1. FC Köln — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at RheinEnergieSTADION this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hertha BSC stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
1. FC Köln carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. 1. FC Köln register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Hertha BSC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: 1. FC Köln have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 7 past contests while Hertha BSC have managed just 1 wins.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 1–0 with 1. FC Köln winning.
The historical record gives 1. FC Köln a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Köln in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Köln 52% and Hertha BSC 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 44% | Hertha BSC 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.63 xG and Hertha BSC 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.985 / defence 0.930 | Hertha BSC attack 1.154 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.266. Data: 27 1. FC Köln games / 61 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 43% | Draw 26% | Hertha BSC 31%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Hertha BSC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Köln at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Köln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 60% | Hertha BSC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: RheinEnergieSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 43% | Draw 26% | Hertha BSC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.63 / Hertha BSC 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.985 / def 0.930 | Hertha BSC attack 1.154 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Hertha BSC xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC kick off?
1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at RheinEnergieSTADION.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC?
1. FC Köln 0 - 1 Hertha BSC.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieSTADION.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC part of?
1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 43% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both 1. FC Köln and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Hertha BSC?
Record (7 meetings): 1. FC Köln 4W | Draws 2 | Hertha BSC 1W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and Hertha BSC in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Hertha BSC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1. FC Köln's attack rating (0.98) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus 1. FC Köln's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
43%
2.33
26%
3.80
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
2.99
1.36
Hertha BSC xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
11%
9.09
6%
16.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.1 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.36 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, 1. FC Köln have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 20W 17D 24L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hertha BSC's form line: 22W 14D 25L from 61 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Köln on 1.26 PPG, Hertha BSC on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, 1. FC Köln have posted 1.33 PPG from 30 outings (11W 7D 12L).
On the road, Hertha BSC have gone 11W 6D 13L from 30 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.80 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC in 70%.
Last 61 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 20W 17D 24L in their last 61 games (1.26 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 22W 14D 25L in their last 61 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or Hertha BSC away?
1. FC Köln's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.33 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2023, when 1. FC Köln won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Köln's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
1. FC Köln
2
Draws
2
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Hertha BSC?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 4, Hertha BSC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when 1. FC Köln 0-1 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and Hertha BSC?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Köln see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1. FC Köln at 53%, Hertha BSC at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for 1. FC Köln and 77% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of 1. FC Köln's games and 77% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of 1. FC Köln's matches and 77% of Hertha BSC's.
Do 1. FC Köln and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hertha BSC defy the odds to beat 1. FC Köln 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat 1. FC Köln 0-1 at RheinEnergieSTADION, Regular Season - 28, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.63 xG and Hertha BSC 1.36 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Köln fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.98 / defence 0.93 against Hertha BSC attack 1.15 / defence 1.13, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 43% | Draw 26% | Hertha BSC 31%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Hertha BSC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 44%, Hertha BSC 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.26 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hertha BSC win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.