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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Köln edge out FC Schalke 04 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Köln beat FC Schalke 04 1-0 at RheinEnergieSTADION, Regular Season - 21, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.45 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.43 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Schalke 04 landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 1.09 / defence 0.90 against FC Schalke 04 attack 1.01 / defence 0.89, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 37% | Draw 26% | FC Schalke 04 37%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 44%, FC Schalke 04 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Köln's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Schalke 04's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.19 PPG, FC Schalke 04 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Köln win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights