1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Bochum – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Bochum fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Voith-Arena plays host to 1. FC Heidenheim versus VfL Bochum in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
1. FC Heidenheim's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim's home record at Voith-Arena: 5W 3D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
VfL Bochum have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for VfL Bochum, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, VfL Bochum have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for 1. FC Heidenheim, 1.10 for VfL Bochum — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — 1. FC Heidenheim have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, VfL Bochum in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: 1. FC Heidenheim 0W, VfL Bochum 1W, 3D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
VfL Bochum half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Heidenheim 64% and VfL Bochum 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 66% | VfL Bochum 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.48 xG and VfL Bochum 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.975 / defence 1.142 | VfL Bochum attack 0.985 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.167. Data: 10 1. FC Heidenheim games / 44 VfL Bochum games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 41% | Draw 26% | VfL Bochum 33%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | VfL Bochum 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Heidenheim are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% | VfL Bochum 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Bochum | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 41% | Draw 26% | VfL Bochum 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.48 / VfL Bochum 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.975 / def 1.142 | VfL Bochum attack 0.985 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.31
VfL Bochum xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Bochum kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Bochum is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Sunday 9 May 2027 at Voith-Arena.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Bochum part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Bochum is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 41% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Bochum will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Bochum?
Record (4 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 0W | Draws 3 | VfL Bochum 1W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Bochum in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. VfL Bochum (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1. FC Heidenheim's attack at 0.97x the league average against VfL Bochum's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — VfL Bochum's attack (0.98x) against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 10/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
41%
2.45
26%
3.84
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
2.79
1.31
VfL Bochum xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
11%
9.11
8%
13.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.9 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.31 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Bochum?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Heidenheim's recent record stands at 10W 11D 23L from 44 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfL Bochum, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 17L across 44 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for VfL Bochum is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for 1. FC Heidenheim against 1.25 for VfL Bochum. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, 1. FC Heidenheim have managed 7W 7D 8L from 22 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VfL Bochum's away record stands at 6W 6D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 1.30 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Heidenheim have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; VfL Bochum in 64%.
Last 44 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
VfL Bochum
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 10W 11D 23L in their last 44 games (0.93 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 14W 13D 17L in their last 44 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or VfL Bochum away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 1.27 PPG; VfL Bochum away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against VfL Bochum — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
1. FC Heidenheim
3
Draws
1
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Bochum?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, VfL Bochum have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Bochum last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2025, when 1. FC Heidenheim 0-0 VfL Bochum.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Bochum?
VfL Bochum have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 59%, VfL Bochum 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (1. FC Heidenheim) and 50% (VfL Bochum). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play VfL Bochum?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 68% of VfL Bochum's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Bochum usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 50% of VfL Bochum's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Bochum tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, VfL Bochum in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.