Villefranche 1-3 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Villefranche at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Villefranche vs Quevilly fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Relegation Round sees Quevilly travel to Stade Armand Chouffet to take on Villefranche. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 24 May 2022, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Quevilly — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Quevilly away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villefranche 1.07 xG and Quevilly 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villefranche attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Quevilly attack 0.659 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 0.970 / away 1.110. Quevilly bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Villefranche's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 0 Villefranche games / 38 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Villefranche 40% | Draw 32% | Quevilly 28%. Fair-value odds: Villefranche 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Quevilly 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Villefranche as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Villefranche offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villefranche vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Relegation Round | Venue: Stade Armand Chouffet • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 May 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villefranche 40% | Draw 32% | Quevilly 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Villefranche 1.07 / Quevilly 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Villefranche attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Quevilly attack 0.659 / def 1.292 | league avg home 0.970 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Villefranche (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Villefranche xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Quevilly xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villefranche vs Quevilly kick off?
Villefranche vs Quevilly kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 24 May 2022 at Stade Armand Chouffet.
What was the final score in Villefranche vs Quevilly?
Villefranche 1 - 3 Quevilly.
Where is Villefranche vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand Chouffet.
What competition is Villefranche vs Quevilly part of?
Villefranche vs Quevilly is a Relegation Round fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Villefranche vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Villefranche a 40% chance of winning, Quevilly a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Villefranche the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villefranche vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Villefranche and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Villefranche vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villefranche and Quevilly?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Villefranche and Quevilly in?
Quevilly (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Quevilly away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Villefranche's attack at 0.85x the league average against Quevilly's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Quevilly's attack versus Villefranche's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villefranche Win
40%
2.50
32%
3.14
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Villefranche xG
Total xG
1.91
0.84
Quevilly xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
10%
10.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 12.5 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villefranche vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Villefranche and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Villefranche and 0.84 for Quevilly, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Villefranche vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villefranche
Pre-Season
Quevilly
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Villefranche and Quevilly runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Villefranche
0
Draws
2
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villefranche and Quevilly?
From 2 meetings on record, Villefranche have won 0, Quevilly have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Villefranche and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2022, when Quevilly 2-0 Villefranche.
Who has won more matches between Villefranche and Quevilly?
Quevilly have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villefranche home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Quevilly cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Villefranche.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly beat Villefranche 1-3 at Stade Armand Chouffet, Relegation Round, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villefranche 1.07 xG and Quevilly 0.84 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Quevilly outscored their 0.84 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villefranche attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Quevilly attack 0.66 / defence 1.29, drawn from 0/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villefranche 40% | Draw 32% | Quevilly 28%, with Villefranche to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Quevilly win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.