Valenciennes 0-0 Dijon – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Valenciennes at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valenciennes vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Hainaut plays host to Valenciennes versus Dijon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 12 March 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valenciennes have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Valenciennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valenciennes at Stade du Hainaut this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dijon's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Dijon have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Valenciennes against 1.40 for Dijon. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Valenciennes lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Valenciennes winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Valenciennes half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Dijon half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valenciennes 59% versus Dijon 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valenciennes 44% | Dijon 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valenciennes 1.55 xG and Dijon 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valenciennes attack 1.173 / defence 1.533 | Dijon attack 0.970 / defence 1.328. League average goals — home 0.993 / away 0.955. Dijon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.328 — this is suppressing Valenciennes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Valenciennes games / 27 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valenciennes 41% | Draw 24% | Dijon 35%. Fair-value odds: Valenciennes 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Dijon 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valenciennes at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valenciennes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valenciennes 80% | Dijon 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valenciennes vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade du Hainaut • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valenciennes 41% | Draw 24% | Dijon 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Valenciennes 1.55 / Dijon 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Valenciennes attack 1.173 / def 1.533 | Dijon attack 0.970 / def 1.328 | league avg home 0.993 / away 0.955 • Poisson stance: Valenciennes (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Valenciennes xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Dijon xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valenciennes vs Dijon kick off?
Valenciennes vs Dijon kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Stade du Hainaut.
What was the final score in Valenciennes vs Dijon?
Valenciennes 0 - 0 Dijon.
Where is Valenciennes vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Hainaut.
What competition is Valenciennes vs Dijon part of?
Valenciennes vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Valenciennes vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Valenciennes a 41% chance of winning, Dijon a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Valenciennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valenciennes vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Valenciennes and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Valenciennes vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Dijon?
Record (1 meetings): Valenciennes 1W | Draws 0 | Dijon 0W.
What form are Valenciennes and Dijon in?
Valenciennes (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Dijon (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Valenciennes's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Dijon's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Dijon's attack (0.97x) against Valenciennes's defence (1.53x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Valenciennes Win
41%
2.46
24%
4.10
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Valenciennes xG
Total xG
2.97
1.42
Dijon xG
2.46
41%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
10%
10.18
7%
13.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.3 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valenciennes vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Valenciennes and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Valenciennes and 1.42 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Valenciennes vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 27 outings, Valenciennes have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 7W 10D 10L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Valenciennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dijon's form line: 10W 3D 14L from 27 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Valenciennes against 1.22 for Dijon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Valenciennes have posted 1.08 PPG from 13 outings (4W 2D 7L).
On the road, Dijon have gone 4W 1D 8L from 13 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valenciennes are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.15 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valenciennes
Blended
Dijon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valenciennes and Dijon in coming into this match?
Valenciennes have gone 7W 10D 10L in their last 27 games (1.15 PPG), while Dijon have gone 10W 3D 14L in their last 27 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valenciennes at home or Dijon away?
Valenciennes's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valenciennes at home: 1.08 PPG; Dijon away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valenciennes have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dijon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Valenciennes
2
Draws
1
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Dijon?
From 4 meetings on record, Valenciennes have won 1, Dijon have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valenciennes and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Valenciennes 2-2 Dijon.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valenciennes 69%, Dijon 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Valenciennes and 54% for Dijon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dijon in 31%; Dijon in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valenciennes home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valenciennes play Dijon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Valenciennes's games and 46% of Dijon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valenciennes vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Valenciennes's matches and 54% of Dijon's.
Do Valenciennes and Dijon tend to score early?
Valenciennes have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Dijon in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Valenciennes's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Hainaut, Regular Season - 28, as Valenciennes and Dijon drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valenciennes 1.55 xG and Dijon 1.42 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Valenciennes fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Dijon landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valenciennes attack 1.17 / defence 1.53 against Dijon attack 0.97 / defence 1.33, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valenciennes 41% | Draw 24% | Dijon 35%, with Valenciennes to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valenciennes 44%, Dijon 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valenciennes's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dijon's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valenciennes 1.15 PPG, Dijon 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Valenciennes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line. Dijon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.