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Dominant Saint Etienne run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Rodez.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Saint Etienne beat Rodez 4-0 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.30 xG and Rodez 1.47 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Saint Etienne beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rodez landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Rodez attack 1.09 / defence 1.05, drawn from 1/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 33% | Draw 27% | Rodez 40%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Saint Etienne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 57%, Rodez 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Saint Etienne's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Rodez's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 0.89 PPG, Rodez 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights