Saint Etienne vs Guingamp – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Guingamp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Saint Etienne host Guingamp at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 5 March 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Saint Etienne have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Saint Etienne have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Guingamp — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Saint Etienne have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Saint Etienne have won 2, Guingamp 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2026, ended 0–3 with Guingamp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 44% versus Guingamp 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 59% | Guingamp 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.97 xG and Guingamp 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.342 / defence 0.598 | Guingamp attack 0.815 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.319. Saint Etienne carry an above-average attack strength of 1.342 — their λ of 1.97 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Saint Etienne's defence rating of 0.598 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Saint Etienne games / 46 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 69% | Draw 20% | Guingamp 11%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 1.45 | Draw 5.00 | Guingamp 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Saint Etienne (69%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Guingamp lead the H2H ledger, but Saint Etienne carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 20% | Guingamp 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Friday 5 Mar 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 69% | Draw 20% | Guingamp 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 41% | xG Saint Etienne 1.97 / Guingamp 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.342 / def 0.598 | Guingamp attack 0.815 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Guingamp xG
41%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Guingamp kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Guingamp is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 5 March 2027 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Guingamp part of?
Saint Etienne vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 69% chance of winning, Guingamp a 11% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Saint Etienne and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Guingamp?
Record (7 meetings): Saint Etienne 2W | Draws 1 | Guingamp 4W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Guingamp in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Guingamp (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (1.34) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
69%
1.45
20%
5.00
11%
8.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.2%
Home win
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.62
0.64
Guingamp xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.00
20%
Draw
8.94
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
14%
7.18
Win to Nil
36%
2.77
2%
64.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 9.3 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.2 | 9.2 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 0.64 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Guingamp?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Saint Etienne's recent record stands at 25W 8D 13L from 46 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 20L across 46 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Saint Etienne by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Guingamp heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Saint Etienne have managed 16W 3D 4L from 23 games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.80 PPG overall — Saint Etienne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Guingamp's away record stands at 5W 6D 12L across 23 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.26 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 25W 8D 13L in their last 46 games (1.80 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 14W 12D 20L in their last 46 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Guingamp away?
Saint Etienne's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 2.22 PPG; Guingamp away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Guingamp in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2026, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
4
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Guingamp?
From 7 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 2, Guingamp have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Guingamp 3-0 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 39%, Guingamp 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Saint Etienne and 61% for Guingamp. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Guingamp in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 56% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Saint Etienne's matches and 61% of Guingamp's.
Do Saint Etienne and Guingamp tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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