Saint Etienne 1-0 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Geoffroy-Guichard plays host to Saint Etienne versus Clermont Foot in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 17 January 2026 at 19:55 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Saint Etienne have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne's home record at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Clermont Foot's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Saint Etienne, 1.20 for Clermont Foot — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Saint Etienne, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Clermont Foot — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Saint Etienne winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Saint Etienne and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Clermont Foot half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 56% versus Clermont Foot 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 60% | Clermont Foot 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.90 xG and Clermont Foot 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.367 / defence 1.246 | Clermont Foot attack 0.841 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.180. Saint Etienne carry an above-average attack strength of 1.367 — their λ of 1.90 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 18 Saint Etienne games / 52 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 53% | Draw 22% | Clermont Foot 25%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Clermont Foot 4.00. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 80% | Clermont Foot 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 19:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 53% | Draw 22% | Clermont Foot 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG Saint Etienne 1.90 / Clermont Foot 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.367 / def 1.246 | Clermont Foot attack 0.841 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Clermont Foot xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 19:55 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot?
Saint Etienne 1 - 0 Clermont Foot.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot part of?
Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 53% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Saint Etienne and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Clermont Foot?
Record (3 meetings): Saint Etienne 3W | Draws 0 | Clermont Foot 0W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Clermont Foot in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Clermont Foot (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (1.37) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (0.84x) against Saint Etienne's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 18/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
53%
1.89
22%
4.47
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
3.14
1.24
Clermont Foot xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
15%
6.69
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
4%
27.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.2 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.24 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Saint Etienne come into this having played 52 games, going 17W 10D 25L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Clermont Foot sit at 1.04 PPG from 52 outings (12W 18D 22L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Saint Etienne against 1.04 for Clermont Foot. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Saint Etienne's home form reads 10W 5D 10L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Clermont Foot have taken 1.00 points per game from 25 outings (6W 7D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 0.98 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 17W 10D 25L in their last 52 games (1.17 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 12W 18D 22L in their last 52 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Clermont Foot away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.40 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Saint Etienne go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
5
Saint Etienne
0
Draws
0
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Clermont Foot?
From 5 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 5, Clermont Foot have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Saint Etienne 3-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Clermont Foot?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 64%, Clermont Foot 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Saint Etienne) and 48% (Clermont Foot). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Clermont Foot?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Saint Etienne's games and 48% of Clermont Foot's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Saint Etienne's matches and 48% of Clermont Foot's.
Do Saint Etienne and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Saint Etienne edge out Clermont Foot 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Clermont Foot 1-0 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.90 xG and Clermont Foot 1.24 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Saint Etienne fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Clermont Foot landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.37 / defence 1.25 against Clermont Foot attack 0.84 / defence 1.09, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 53% | Draw 22% | Clermont Foot 25%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 60%, Clermont Foot 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.17 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.