🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stade Geoffroy-Guichard plays host to Saint Etienne versus Clermont Foot in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 17 January 2026 at 19:55 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Saint Etienne have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Saint Etienne's home record at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Clermont Foot's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Clermont Foot's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Saint Etienne, 1.20 for Clermont Foot — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours Saint Etienne, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Clermont Foot — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Saint Etienne winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Saint Etienne and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading

Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

Clermont Foot half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 56% versus Clermont Foot 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 60% | Clermont Foot 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.90 xG and Clermont Foot 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.367 / defence 1.246 | Clermont Foot attack 0.841 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.180. Saint Etienne carry an above-average attack strength of 1.367 — their λ of 1.90 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 18 Saint Etienne games / 52 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 53% | Draw 22% | Clermont Foot 25%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Clermont Foot 4.00. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 80% | Clermont Foot 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights