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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Annecy encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 28 as Saint Etienne welcome Annecy to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. Kick-off is set for Friday 9 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Saint Etienne — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Saint Etienne haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Saint Etienne are significantly better at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard than their overall form suggests.

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Annecy haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Annecy away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Saint Etienne) versus 1.60 (Annecy). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Saint Etienne, 2 for Annecy and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 4–0 with Saint Etienne winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Table Standings

In the Ligue 2 table, Saint Etienne sit 3rd on 60 points, 4 places and 8 points ahead of Annecy in 7th.

Saint Etienne's home record this season stands at 11W 2D 4L. On the road, Annecy's record stands at 8W 1D 8L this term. Saint Etienne: Promotion Playoffs.

Trading Patterns

Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).

Annecy in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 44% versus Annecy 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 56% | Annecy 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.71 xG and Annecy 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.212 / defence 0.911 | Annecy attack 1.107 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.258. Data: 34 Saint Etienne games / 34 Annecy games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 46% | Draw 26% | Annecy 27%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Annecy 3.70. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Saint Etienne are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Saint Etienne 20% | Annecy 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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