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Dominant Saint Etienne run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Amiens.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Saint Etienne beat Amiens 5-0 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.87 xG and Amiens 1.14 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Saint Etienne beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Amiens landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.18 / defence 0.98 against Amiens attack 0.92 / defence 1.32, drawn from 33/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 53% | Draw 26% | Amiens 21%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 57%, Amiens 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Saint Etienne's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Amiens's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.30 PPG, Amiens 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights