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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Rodez edge out Saint Etienne 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rodez beat Saint Etienne 2-1 at Stade Paul-Lignon, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.39 xG and Saint Etienne 0.86 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.11 / defence 0.90 against Saint Etienne attack 0.77 / defence 1.03, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rodez 47% | Draw 32% | Saint Etienne 21%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 54%, Saint Etienne 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rodez's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Saint Etienne's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rodez 1.38 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights