🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Rodez and Reims share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rodez and Reims finished level at 2-2 at Stade Paul-Lignon, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.22 xG and Reims 1.02 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Reims outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.80 / defence 0.90 against Reims attack 0.89 / defence 1.22, drawn from 43/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rodez 41% | Draw 29% | Reims 31%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 56%, Reims 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rodez's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Reims's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rodez 1.19 PPG, Reims 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Reims (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights