🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Rodez and RED Star FC 93 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Paul-Lignon, Regular Season - 21, as Rodez and RED Star FC 93 drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 0.94 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.19 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.98 / defence 0.94 against RED Star FC 93 attack 1.07 / defence 0.77, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rodez 29% | Draw 29% | RED Star FC 93 42%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 58%, RED Star FC 93 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rodez's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

RED Star FC 93's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rodez 1.23 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights