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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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RED Star FC 93 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Rodez.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RED Star FC 93 beat Rodez 0-2 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 2.27 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.07 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rodez fell 2.3 short of their projected output. RED Star FC 93 outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.24 / defence 1.25 against RED Star FC 93 attack 0.87 / defence 1.30, drawn from 54/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rodez 64% | Draw 19% | RED Star FC 93 17%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a RED Star FC 93 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 69%, RED Star FC 93 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rodez's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

RED Star FC 93's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rodez 1.25 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RED Star FC 93 win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights