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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rodez and Paris FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 32, as Rodez and Paris FC drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.52 xG and Paris FC 1.39 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.12 / defence 1.19 against Paris FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.97, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rodez 41% | Draw 25% | Paris FC 35%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 61%, Paris FC 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rodez's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Paris FC's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rodez 1.37 PPG, Paris FC 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights