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Stalemate at Rodez's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rodez and Nancy finished level at 0-0 at Stade Paul-Lignon, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.84 xG and Nancy 1.03 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rodez fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Nancy landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against Nancy attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rodez 56% | Draw 23% | Nancy 21%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights