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Prediction vindicated as Rodez edge out Martigues 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rodez beat Martigues 1-0 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.55 xG and Martigues 0.96 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Martigues landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.17 / defence 1.25 against Martigues attack 0.74 / defence 0.97, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rodez 51% | Draw 26% | Martigues 23%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 64%, Martigues 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rodez's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Martigues's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rodez 1.14 PPG, Martigues 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. Martigues (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights