Rodez 1-3 Laval – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Laval at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs Laval encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Paul Lignon plays host to Rodez versus Laval in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Tuesday 24 September 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rodez have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rodez at Stade Paul Lignon this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Rodez are significantly better at Stade Paul Lignon than their overall form suggests.
Laval's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Laval have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Laval away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Rodez, 1.10 for Laval — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rodez lead 1W to 3W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2024, ended 1–2 with Laval winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Rodez — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Laval — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 63% versus Laval 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 58% | Laval 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.22 xG and Laval 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.056 / defence 1.219 | Laval attack 1.082 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.204. Data: 43 Rodez games / 43 Laval games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 29% | Draw 25% | Laval 46%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Laval 2.17. Laval hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Laval are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Laval if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 70% | Laval 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Sep 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 29% | Draw 25% | Laval 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Rodez 1.22 / Laval 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.056 / def 1.219 | Laval attack 1.082 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Laval (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Laval xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Laval kick off?
Rodez vs Laval kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 24 September 2024 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Laval?
Rodez 1 - 3 Laval.
Where is Rodez vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Laval part of?
Rodez vs Laval is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 29% chance of winning, Laval a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Rodez and Laval will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Laval?
Record (4 meetings): Rodez 1W | Draws 0 | Laval 3W.
What form are Rodez and Laval in?
Rodez (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Laval (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rodez's attack rating (1.06) and Laval's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Laval's attack (1.08x) against Rodez's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
29%
3.41
25%
4.04
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.81
1.59
Laval xG
3.41
29%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
6%
16.73
14%
7.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Rodez and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Rodez and 1.59 for Laval, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Laval?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rodez come into this having played 43 games, going 16W 12D 15L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Rodez, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Laval sit at 1.40 PPG from 43 outings (16W 12D 15L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Laval, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Rodez against 1.40 for Laval. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rodez's home form reads 9W 7D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Laval have taken 1.71 points per game from 21 outings (10W 6D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rodez are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 1.07 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Early Season
Laval
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Laval in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 16W 12D 15L in their last 43 games (1.40 PPG), while Laval have gone 16W 12D 15L in their last 43 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Laval away?
Laval's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.62 PPG; Laval away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Rodez or Laval been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Laval in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Laval — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Rodez
2
Draws
5
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Laval?
From 8 meetings on record, Rodez have won 1, Laval have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Laval last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Laval 0-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Laval?
Laval have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Laval see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 67%, Laval 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Rodez) and 38% (Laval).
On the defensive side: Laval in 48%; Laval in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Laval?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Rodez's recent matches and 33% of Laval's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Laval usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Rodez's recent games and 38% of Laval's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Laval tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Laval in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Laval cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Rodez.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Laval beat Rodez 1-3 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.22 xG and Laval 1.59 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Laval outscored their 1.59 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.06 / defence 1.22 against Laval attack 1.08 / defence 0.93, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 29% | Draw 25% | Laval 46%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 58%, Laval 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Laval's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.40 PPG, Laval 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Laval win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Laval (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.