Rodez vs Guingamp – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs Guingamp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Rodez welcome Guingamp to Stade Paul-Lignon. Kick-off is set for Friday 12 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Rodez have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Paul-Lignon, Rodez have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Rodez are significantly better at Stade Paul-Lignon than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rodez at 1.00 PPG versus Guingamp's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Guingamp have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 10 encounters against Rodez's 1 victories.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Guingamp have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Rodez in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 67% versus Guingamp 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 54% | Guingamp 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.24 xG and Guingamp 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.011 / defence 1.105 | Guingamp attack 0.886 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.358. Data: 45 Rodez games / 45 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 34% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 39%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Guingamp 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 70% | Guingamp 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Paul-Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 12 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 34% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Rodez 1.24 / Guingamp 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.011 / def 1.105 | Guingamp attack 0.886 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Guingamp xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Guingamp kick off?
Rodez vs Guingamp is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 12 February 2027 at Stade Paul-Lignon.
Where is Rodez vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Guingamp part of?
Rodez vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 34% chance of winning, Guingamp a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Rodez and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Guingamp?
Record (10 meetings): Rodez 1W | Draws 5 | Guingamp 4W.
What form are Rodez and Guingamp in?
Rodez (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Guingamp (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rodez's attack rating (1.01) and Guingamp's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
34%
2.90
27%
3.75
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.57
1.33
Guingamp xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
9%
10.98
11%
8.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.2 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Rodez and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Rodez and 1.33 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rodez's recent record stands at 20W 14D 12L from 46 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 20L across 46 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rodez by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Guingamp heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rodez have managed 10W 7D 5L from 22 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Guingamp's away record stands at 5W 6D 11L across 22 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rodez are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.26 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 20W 14D 12L in their last 46 games (1.61 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 14W 12D 20L in their last 46 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Guingamp away?
Rodez's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.68 PPG; Guingamp away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rodez and Guingamp runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jan 2025, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rodez's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Rodez
5
Draws
4
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Guingamp?
From 10 meetings on record, Rodez have won 1, Guingamp have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Guingamp 0-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 68%, Guingamp 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rodez) and 64% (Guingamp). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guingamp in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Rodez's games and 59% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Rodez's matches and 64% of Guingamp's.
Do Rodez and Guingamp tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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