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Shock result as Rodez defy the odds to beat Estac Troyes 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rodez beat Estac Troyes 2-1 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.22 xG and Estac Troyes 1.48 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.09 / defence 1.32 against Estac Troyes attack 1.10 / defence 0.83, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rodez 31% | Draw 26% | Estac Troyes 43%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Rodez win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 60%, Estac Troyes 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rodez's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Estac Troyes's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rodez 1.40 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights