🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Rodez and Dunkerque share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Paul-Lignon, Regular Season - 15, as Rodez and Dunkerque drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.05 xG and Dunkerque 1.25 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.93 / defence 0.99 against Dunkerque attack 1.04 / defence 0.88, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rodez 31% | Draw 28% | Dunkerque 41%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 58%, Dunkerque 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rodez's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Dunkerque's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Dunkerque arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights