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Shock result as Clermont Foot defy the odds to beat Rodez 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Clermont Foot beat Rodez 0-1 at Stade Paul-Lignon, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.07 xG and Clermont Foot 0.85 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Rodez fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.89 / defence 0.86 against Clermont Foot attack 0.93 / defence 0.97, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rodez 40% | Draw 31% | Clermont Foot 28%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Clermont Foot win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 56%, Clermont Foot 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rodez's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Clermont Foot's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rodez 1.21 PPG, Clermont Foot 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Clermont Foot win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights