Rodez 2-1 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rodez host Annecy at Stade Paul-Lignon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 28 October 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Rodez — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at Stade Paul-Lignon this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Rodez) versus 1.50 (Annecy). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Rodez, 1 for Annecy and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Rodez trading profile (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Annecy trading profile (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 67% versus Annecy 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 58% | Annecy 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.08 xG and Annecy 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.877 / defence 1.013 | Annecy attack 0.957 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.227 / away 1.231. Data: 45 Rodez games / 45 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 33% | Draw 29% | Annecy 39%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Annecy 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Rodez 60% | Annecy 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Paul-Lignon • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Oct 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 33% | Draw 29% | Annecy 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Rodez 1.08 / Annecy 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.877 / def 1.013 | Annecy attack 0.957 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.227 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Annecy (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Annecy xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Annecy kick off?
Rodez vs Annecy kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 28 October 2025 at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Annecy?
Rodez 2 - 1 Annecy.
Where is Rodez vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Annecy part of?
Rodez vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 33% chance of winning, Annecy a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Rodez and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Annecy?
Record (6 meetings): Rodez 3W | Draws 2 | Annecy 1W.
What form are Rodez and Annecy in?
Rodez (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Annecy (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rodez's attack rating (0.88) and Annecy's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
33%
3.04
29%
3.51
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.27
1.19
Annecy xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
10%
10.02
13%
7.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Rodez and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Rodez and 1.19 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Rodez have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 12W 16D 17L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Annecy's form line: 18W 12D 15L from 45 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rodez on 1.16 PPG, Annecy on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rodez have posted 1.26 PPG from 23 outings (7W 8D 8L).
On the road, Annecy have gone 8W 5D 10L from 23 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Rodez are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.24 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Annecy in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Annecy in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 12W 16D 17L in their last 45 games (1.16 PPG), while Annecy have gone 18W 12D 15L in their last 45 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Annecy away?
Rodez's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.26 PPG; Annecy away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Rodez or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Annecy in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2024, when Rodez won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rodez's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Rodez
2
Draws
2
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Annecy?
From 9 meetings on record, Rodez have won 5, Annecy have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Annecy 2-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Annecy?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 70%, Annecy 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Rodez) and 39% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Annecy in 35%; Annecy in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Annecy?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Rodez's games and 44% of Annecy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Rodez's recent games and 39% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Annecy tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Annecy in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rodez defy the odds to beat Annecy 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Annecy 2-1 at Stade Paul-Lignon, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.08 xG and Annecy 1.19 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Rodez beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.88 / defence 1.01 against Annecy attack 0.96 / defence 1.00, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 33% | Draw 29% | Annecy 39%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Rodez win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 58%, Annecy 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Annecy's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.16 PPG, Annecy 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.