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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Rodez edge out Amiens 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rodez beat Amiens 3-2 at Stade Paul-Lignon, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.55 xG and Amiens 0.85 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Rodez beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Amiens outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.02 / defence 0.85 against Amiens attack 0.88 / defence 1.29, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rodez 52% | Draw 29% | Amiens 19%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 55%, Amiens 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rodez's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Amiens's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rodez 1.36 PPG, Amiens 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights