Reims 1-0 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Auguste-Delaune plays host to Reims versus Saint Etienne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 24 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Reims have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stade Auguste-Delaune this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
Saint Etienne (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Reims, 1.40 for Saint Etienne — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Reims, 3 for Saint Etienne and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 2–3 with Saint Etienne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Reims half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 53% versus Saint Etienne 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 49% | Saint Etienne 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.66 xG and Saint Etienne 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 1.252 / defence 0.970 | Saint Etienne attack 0.863 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.212. Reims carry an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — their λ of 1.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 19 Reims games / 19 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 52% | Draw 24% | Saint Etienne 23%. Fair-value odds: Reims 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Saint Etienne 4.35. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reims are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Reims 50% | Saint Etienne 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 52% | Draw 24% | Saint Etienne 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Reims 1.66 / Saint Etienne 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 1.252 / def 0.970 | Saint Etienne attack 0.863 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Reims (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Saint Etienne xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Reims vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Saint Etienne?
Reims 1 - 0 Saint Etienne.
Where is Reims vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Saint Etienne part of?
Reims vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 52% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Reims and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Saint Etienne?
Record (5 meetings): Reims 2W | Draws 0 | Saint Etienne 3W.
What form are Reims and Saint Etienne in?
Reims (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Saint Etienne (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Reims's attack at 1.25x the league average against Saint Etienne's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (0.86x) against Reims's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
52%
1.91
24%
4.09
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Reims xG
Total xG
2.67
1.01
Saint Etienne xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
4%
22.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.6 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Reims and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Reims and 1.01 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reims come into this having played 53 games, going 17W 14D 22L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Saint Etienne sit at 1.21 PPG from 53 outings (18W 10D 25L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Reims against 1.21 for Saint Etienne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Reims's home form reads 10W 5D 11L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Saint Etienne have taken 1.00 points per game from 26 outings (7W 5D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Reims are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.42 scored and 1.92 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 17W 14D 22L in their last 53 games (1.23 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 18W 10D 25L in their last 53 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Saint Etienne away?
Reims's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.35 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Reims
0
Draws
3
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Saint Etienne?
From 6 meetings on record, Reims have won 3, Saint Etienne have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Reims 1-0 Saint Etienne.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 54%, Saint Etienne 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Reims) and 58% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Reims have failed to score in 27% of games; Saint Etienne in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Reims's recent matches and 50% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Reims's recent games and 58% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Reims edge out Saint Etienne 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Saint Etienne 1-0 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.66 xG and Saint Etienne 1.01 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Saint Etienne landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 1.25 / defence 0.97 against Saint Etienne attack 0.86 / defence 1.07, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 52% | Draw 24% | Saint Etienne 23%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 49%, Saint Etienne 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.23 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.