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Shock result as Rodez defy the odds to beat Reims 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rodez beat Reims 1-2 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.13 xG and Rodez 1.00 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Rodez outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.93 / defence 0.79 against Rodez attack 1.08 / defence 1.07, drawn from 26/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reims 38% | Draw 31% | Rodez 31%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Rodez win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 43%, Rodez 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reims's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Rodez's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reims 1.27 PPG, Rodez 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights